Pharmas to lose $100bn to generics

What does this tell us about the coming market?

22/02/2007 - A report to be published next week predicts that US and EU pharmas will lose up to $100bn in revenues over the next five years as generic products take advantage of major branded products losing patent protection.

The greatest impact will seen be between 2010 and 2012 as the patents covering Pfizer's blockbuster drug Lipitor (astorvastatin calcium) expire, according to the new report "Generic Competition 2007 to 2011 – The impact of patent expiries on sales of major drugs."

The drug achieved worldwide sales of almost $13bn (€9.9bn) in 2006, representing the biggest opportunity ever for the generics industry, according to the report.Patent expiration can cause revenues for the supplier to drop 10-fold over a period of just two years, said report author, Dr Peter Norman.

Eli Lilly experienced this first hand on expiration of Prozac's (fluoxetine) patent, and Bristol-Myers Squibb saw revenues for Plavix (clopidogrel bisulfate) drop 90 per cent within a quarter as generic clopidogrel hit the market following the branded product's patent expiry.

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